There are two weeks left in the SWAC regular season. And based on last Saturday’s results, Jackson State and Prairie View A&M are the only teams that can win their divisions without help. If both teams win their remaining games, they will meet in the SWAC Championship Game on Saturday, Dec. 5, on ESPN2.

Week 10 changed both races. Prairie View beat Alabama A&M 31-10. That took control of the East away from the Bulldogs and handed it to Jackson State, which beat Mississippi Valley State 38-7. In the West, Alcorn State beat Florida A&M 38-20 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff edged Grambling State 35-32, so three teams are tied at 4-2.

Eight teams are still alive. Four have been mathematically eliminated: Mississippi Valley State, Florida A&M (ineligible for postseason competition), Texas Southern and Grambling State.

East	SWAC	Overall	West	SWAC	Overall
Jackson State	4-2	7-2	Prairie View A&M	4-2	5-5
Alabama A&M	4-2	7-3	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	4-2	6-3
Bethune-Cookman	3-3	5-5	Alcorn State	4-2	6-4
Alabama State	3-3	5-4	Southern	3-3	5-5
Mississippi Valley State	2-4	3-7	Texas Southern	2-4	3-6
Florida A&M	1-5	2-8	Grambling State	2-4	4-5

Teams controlling their own destiny

Jackson State (4-2 SWAC, 7-2)

Remaining Games: at Alabama State (Nov. 14), at Alcorn State (Nov. 21)

Win both, and the Tigers are East champions, no matter what anyone else does. They would finish 6-2, and the only team that could match that is Alabama A&M, which JSU beat 31-28 on Oct. 3.

A loss does not end it, but where it comes matters.

• Beat Alabama State, lose at Alcorn (5-3): JSU still wins the East if Alabama A&M loses at least once. If Bethune-Cookman also wins out, a tie at 5-3 goes to tiebreakers, and the Wildcats beat JSU 24-21 on Oct. 24.
• Lose at Alabama State, beat Alcorn (5-3): This is the costlier loss, because it hands the Hornets the head-to-head edge. JSU would need Alabama A&M to lose at least once and Prairie View to beat Alabama State on Nov. 21.
• Lose both (4-4): JSU would need everything to break its way: Alabama A&M and Bethune-Cookman both lose twice, Prairie View beats Alabama State, and Florida A&M beats Mississippi Valley State.

Prairie View A&M (4-2 SWAC, 5-5)

Remaining Games: at Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Nov. 14), at Alabama State (Nov. 21)

Win both, and the Panthers are West champions. Arkansas-Pine Bluff would have lost to PV, and Alcorn State, the only other team that could reach 6-2, already lost to PV 41-38. That would send the defending SWAC champions back to the title game.

The game against UAPB is the one PV cannot afford to lose.

• Beat UAPB, lose at Alabama State (5-3): PV still wins the West unless Alcorn wins out. If Southern wins out, PV would be relying on tiebreakers, since Southern owns a head-to-head win over the Panthers.
• Lose at UAPB, beat Alabama State (5-3): PV has one narrow path: Alcorn beats Southern but loses to Jackson State, and Texas Southern beats UAPB. That creates a three-way tie at 5-3 decided by tiebreakers.
• Lose both (4-4): Eliminated.

Teams still in the hunt: East

Alabama A&M (4-2 SWAC, 7-3)

Remaining Games: vs. Texas Southern (Nov. 14), at Mississippi Valley State (Nov. 21)

Saturday’s loss at Prairie View cost the Bulldogs control of the East. They now need two wins and one Jackson State loss.

• Win both (6-2): Alabama A&M wins the East if Jackson State loses either game, at Alabama State or at Alcorn.
• Split (5-3): Still alive, but the Bulldogs would also need Jackson State to lose, and probably twice. JSU holds the head-to-head win, so any tie with the Tigers works against Alabama A&M.
• Lose both (4-4): Eliminated.

Bethune-Cookman (3-3 SWAC, 5-5)

Remaining Games: vs. Grambling State (Nov. 14), vs. Florida A&M in the Florida Classic in Orlando (Nov. 21)

Back-to-back losses to Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Southern put the Wildcats a game back. Their win over Jackson State keeps them alive.

• Win both (5-3): Bethune-Cookman needs both Jackson State and Alabama A&M to lose at least once. If Alabama A&M loses twice, the East belongs to the Wildcats. If each of them loses exactly once, a three-way tie at 5-3 goes to tiebreakers.
• Split (4-4): One very narrow path. Jackson State and Alabama A&M both lose twice, Prairie View beats Alabama State, and Mississippi Valley State beats Florida A&M.
• Lose both (3-5): Eliminated.

Alabama State (3-3 SWAC, 5-4)

Remaining Games: vs. Jackson State (Nov. 14), vs. Prairie View (Nov. 21), both at home in Montgomery

The Hornets’ path starts and ends with beating Jackson State. Lose that one and they are out.

• Win both (5-3): Alabama State wins the East if Alabama A&M loses both and Bethune-Cookman loses at least once. The win over JSU would give the Hornets the head-to-head edge over the Tigers.
• Beat JSU, lose to Prairie View (4-4): One very narrow path. Alcorn also beats Jackson State, Alabama A&M and Bethune-Cookman both lose twice, and Mississippi Valley State beats Florida A&M.
• Lose to Jackson State: Eliminated.

Teams still in the hunt: West

Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-2 SWAC, 6-3)

Remaining Games: vs. Prairie View (Nov. 14), at Texas Southern (Nov. 21)

The Golden Lions get Prairie View at home with the West on the line. Beating the Panthers would give UAPB the head-to-head edge. The 53-51 double-overtime loss to Alcorn is the one result standing in its way.

• Win both (6-2): UAPB wins the West if Alcorn State loses at least once, to Southern or to Jackson State.
• Beat PV, lose at Texas Southern (5-3): Still alive, but it needs Alcorn to lose, most likely to Southern on Nov. 14, and then likely a tiebreaker.
• Lose to Prairie View: Eliminated.

Alcorn State (4-2 SWAC, 6-4)

Remaining Games: at Southern (Nov. 14), vs. Jackson State (Nov. 21)

The Braves lost to Prairie View 41-38, but they own the tiebreaker over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Their path runs through Prairie View losing.

• Win both (6-2): Alcorn wins the West if Prairie View loses at least once, at UAPB or at Alabama State.
• Beat Southern, lose to Jackson State (5-3): Alcorn needs UAPB to beat Prairie View and then lose at Texas Southern. If Alabama State also beats PV, the West is Alcorn’s. If not, a three-way tie at 5-3 goes to tiebreakers.
• Lose at Southern, beat Jackson State (5-3): One very narrow path. Prairie View loses both, Texas Southern beats UAPB, and Grambling beats Southern in the Bayou Classic.
• Lose both (4-4): Eliminated.

Southern (3-3 SWAC, 5-5)

Remaining Games: vs. Alcorn State (Nov. 14), vs. Grambling State in the Bayou Classic in New Orleans (Nov. 28)

The Jaguars have won two straight by a combined 87-31 and own wins over Prairie View and Bethune-Cookman. They must win both games, and they need help.

• Win both (5-3): Southern needs Prairie View to beat UAPB and then lose at Alabama State. It also needs either Texas Southern to beat UAPB or Alcorn to beat Jackson State.
• Any loss: Eliminated.

Southern is off on Nov. 21, so the West could still be undecided when everyone else is done. If Southern is alive, the Bayou Classic on Nov. 28 will decide the division.

Teams eliminated, but can still play spoiler

Four teams have no path left to a division title. Each still plays a contender.

• Mississippi Valley State (2-4 SWAC, 3-7): The Delta Devils can still finish 4-4, but in every tie that could produce, they lose the tiebreaker. They close at home against Alabama A&M on Nov. 21. A Valley win there would end the Bulldogs’ clean path to the East.
• Florida A&M (1-5 SWAC, 2-8): The Rattlers can finish no better than 3-5 after four straight losses. They face Bethune-Cookman in the Florida Classic in Orlando on Nov. 21, and a FAMU win would knock the Wildcats out.
• Texas Southern (2-4 SWAC, 3-6): The Tigers can reach 4-4 at best. That can’t win the West, because Prairie View and UAPB play each other and one of them will reach five wins. Texas Southern still plays both East and West contenders: at Alabama A&M on Nov. 14 and home against UAPB on Nov. 21. A win over UAPB opens doors for Alcorn and Southern.
• Grambling State (2-4 SWAC, 4-5): Same math as Texas Southern: 4-4 is the ceiling, and that won’t win the West. The Tigers visit Bethune-Cookman on Nov. 14, then can end Southern’s season in the Bayou Classic on Nov. 28.