Alabama State is 0-for-2 against Alabama this year.
But that doesn’t mean the Hornets should be decided underdogs against the Crimson Tide ahead of their 2026 NCAA Baseball Tournament matchup.
Fresh off rolling through the SWAC Tournament, Alabama State has a credible path to an upset when the regional round begins in Tuscaloosa on Friday.
The Hornets already showed in a 2-1 loss to Alabama on Feb. 18 that they can hang with the Tide, and Alabama State later proved in conference play that its best version can beat quality teams with power and timely pitching.
Why Alabama State can play spoiler
Alabama State’s tournament profile is built on three things: contact hitters at the top of the order, big swings in the middle, and enough pitching to survive if the game stays tight.
The Hornets won the 2026 SWAC Tournament, and Miguel Oropeza was the tournament MVP after hitting .571 with 13 RBI and two home runs across four games, while pitchers James Peterson and Jorhan LaBoy helped stabilize the staff.
The Hornets, winners of eight consecutive games dating back to the regular season, also showed they can create stress on Alabama by putting traffic on the bases.
In their first meeting, Alabama State out-hit Alabama 7-5 and struck out 13 Crimson Tide batters, but lost because of two unearned runs. That matters because it suggests the Hornets’ ceiling is not far from Alabama’s if they clean up defense and get hits with runners in scoring position.
Alabama State’s offense has multiple ways to hurt a favorite.
Oropeza (.366, 11 HR, 65 RBI), Niguel Jenkins (.331), Fabian Santana (.322), Breydon Divine (.308), and Devin Chandler (.291) give the Hornets a deep top five with both average and on-base ability. Catcher Trey Callaway provides the thump with a team-leading 16 homers on the season.
The Hornets overall finished the regular season with a .281 team average, 373 runs, 91 doubles, 57 homers, and a .391 on-base percentage, which is a strong offensive base for an underdog in a regional-style environment.
They also went 7-0 in neutral-site games, a useful indicator for tournament play away from home.
Alabama is better overall, but not invincible. The Crimson Tide has struggled offensively all season.
They finished 2026 with a .253 team average, 355 runs, 70 homers, and a .372 on-base percentage, while opponents hit .246 against them. Their pitching was strong enough to post a 4.28 ERA and 606 strikeouts, but the staff was still vulnerable to damage when opponents got on base and forced long innings. Pitching path to an upset
The clearest upset formula for Alabama State is to keep the game in the hands of James Peterson and Camden Matthews as long as possible, then hand off to Jorhan LaBoy or Trey Power in the middle-to-late innings.
Peterson logged a 3.32 ERA, 53 strikeouts, and 18 appearances, while Matthews posted a 3.49 ERA and six saves. In SWAC play, Peterson was even sharper with a 2.13 ERA and 32 strikeouts over 50.2 innings, and Matthews held a 2.64 ERA with three saves. That gives the Hornets a credible late-game structure if they can start well.
What the numbers say
The table shows the real story: Alabama has the stronger pitching staff, but Alabama State actually brings a better overall offensive profile by average, OPS, runs, and on-base percentage. That is exactly the kind of statistical split that can create an upset, especially when the underdog has already seen the opponent, learned from it, and then dominated its own conference tournament.
History is on Alabama State’s side
Alabama State can beat Alabama simply because college baseball lends itself to unpredictable outcomes.
Just last season, Wright State stunned the No. 1 overall seed Vanderbilt, while UTSA knocked out the No. 2 overall seed Texas.
The Hornets can also look no further than their own conference, which saw Bethune-Cookman beat ranked LSU and Florida in consecutive weeks this season.
Most recently in NCAA Tournament play, Jackson State knocked off the No. 1 overall seed, Louisiana-Lafayette, in 2014.
Anything is possible in tournament play. Don’t count out Alabama State.
Alabama State will play the Crimson Tide on Friday, May 29, at 7 p.m. on ESPN+.
