Week Four for your friendly neighborhood HBCU football prognosticator was full of great finishes, surprising results…and plenty of losses.
After an amazing Week Three, I fell faster than Disney stock thanks to some great games around the country. That’s the beauty of HBCU football; you get at least one surprise each week. Hopefully I can get back on track for Week Five.
Let’s revisit the airballs I threw up in Week Four first.
Week Four Record: 16-9
2025 overall record to date: 95-24
Best pick: Prairie View 31, Northwestern (La.) State 28 (Panthers won 27-24. The State Fair Classic has some meaning this year…)
Worst pick: Take. Your Pick. For the sake of picking one, Edward Waters 28, Bethune-Cookman 22 (Wildcats won 35-9. BCU said, “Not again. Not this year.”)
Game of the week: Jackson State (2-1) at Southern (1-3), Saturday Sept. 27, 7 p.m. EST, ESPN Plus
The much-anticipated rematch of last season SWAC’s championship game (and the annual Boombox Classic) features a Jackson State team coming off of a bye with a 2-1 start and a weary Southern team looking for some sort of confidence booster.
The Jaguars’ problem this season has been an offense that ranks in the bottom quarter of the SWAC in total offense, and only Texas Southern has a worse passing attack. The hope is Fred McNair’s elevation to offensive coordinator and one of their three quarterbacks (Ashton Strother, Cam’Ron McCoy, Jalen Woods) can put up enough points to keep the game close.
The defending HBCU national champs could have questions of their own at QB as freshmen Jared Lockhart and Parker Stofa have seen time alongside Jacobian Morgan.
Luckily for the Tigers, their SWAC-best defense should be enough for a victory in the rematch. What that means for Southern moving forward is anybody’s guess.
Prediction: Jackson State 24, Southern 13
Grambling State (3-1, 0-0 SWAC West) vs. Prairie View A&M (2-2, 1-0 SWAC West), The State Fair Classic, Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas, Saturday Sept. 27, 7 p.m. EST, SWAC TV
Could the SWAC West be decided before October begins? Possibly. Prairie View and Grambling are coming off nice non-conference wins at home and with the Panthers taking the Labor Day Classic, a State Fair Classic win with struggling programs in Southern, Alcorn State and UAPB left, they would control their own destiny.
A Grambling win would muddle up the division picture one more year and with the team off to a solid 3-1 start since Mickey Joseph vowed changes coming into this season, the “G” looks to restore order in the SWAC. Should be a fun game.
Prediction: Prairie View 27, Grambling 26
Allen (2-2, 2-0 SIAC) at Albany State (2-1, 1-0 SIAC), Saturday Sept. 27, 1 p.m. EST, SIAC Network
The Yellowjackets, picked ninth in the conference preseason polls, have taken that personally, defeating Lane and preseason contender Clark Atlanta for a 2-0 start in conference play.
It gets tougher this weekend when they visit the team picked to win the whole thing.
Albany State has blasted Shaw of the CIAA and SIAC foe Kentucky State before giving Florida A&M a scare last week, so these Rams are ready for battle.
QB Isaiah Knowles is completing 64 percent of his passes and has thrown eight touchdown passes against just one interception so far.
Tiant Wyche leads ASU’s SIAC-leading ground game with 201 yards on just 32 carries and three scores.
A beefy defensive line led by Abraham Clinkscales (2 ½ sacks) and Derrick Drayton (2 sacks) have kept opponents at bay this season.
Can Allen match ASU stride for stride? The winner puts themselves in great position for what promises to be a race down to the wire for the SIAC crown.
Prediction: Albany State 35, Allen 27
Alabama State (2-1, 0-0 SWAC East) at Florida A&M (1-2, 0-0 SWAC East), Saturday Sept. 27, 3 p.m. EST, HBCU GO
With Andrew Body healthy at quarterback and their swarming defense at their most ferocious, Bama State pulls into Bragg this Saturday confident and likely favorites against a Rattler team who has struggled early on.
FAMU will need to find a way to neutralize the Hornet offense and score against a defense that trails only Jackson State for fewest points allowed in the SWAC.
1-0 in what looks to be a crowded and competitive SWAC East is vital. The loser may need to start thinking about 2026.
Prediction: Alabama State 31, Florida A&M 17
Virginia State (2-1, 0-0 CIAA) at Fayetteville State (1-3, 1-0 CIAA), Saturday Sept. 27, 1 p.m. CIAA Network
The Trojans survived a late Winston-Salem State rally in a non-conference matchup last week and their reward is a Broncos team who dropped 50-plus points on Elizabeth City State’s Viking helmets in Week Four.
The Trojans offense has proven to be explosive in their own right. Behind redshirt freshman quarterback Rahsaan Matthews Jr., VSU leads all CIAA teams in passing and is only second behind, here’s a shocker, Virginia Union, in rushing offense.
Fayetteville State has a pretty good passer in Demari Daniels, passing for nearly 500 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
These teams are in the middle of the pack defensively, so this looks like your classic “Who has the ball last” game. Should be a fun one as two teams with CIAA title hopes will try to gain an edge on the other.
Prediction: Virginia State 34, Fayetteville State 31
Week Five
Saturday, Sept. 27
Delaware State 32, Sacred Heart 24
Morgan State 24, Miles 14
Norfolk State 31, Wagner 27
South Carolina State 27, Charleston Southern 20
North Carolina Central 33, East Texas A&M 20
Richmond 25, Howard 18
Alabama A&M 28, Bethune-Cookman 17
Mississippi Valley State 30, Texas Southern 21
Kentucky State 25, Morehouse 17
Elon 34, Hampton 21
Maine 35, North Carolina A&T 16
Tennessee Tech 29, Tennessee State 23
Savannah State 30, Kentucky State 25
Lane 21, Central State 17
Benedict 27, Clark Atlanta 24
Fort Valley State 32, Tuskegee 30
Edward Waters 26, Morehouse 14
Virginia Union 28, Shaw 14
Winston-Salem State 30, Bowie State 20
Johnson C. Smith 29, Bluefield State 17
Livingstone 19, Lincoln (Pa.) 16
Ottawa (Az.) 35, Texas College 21
Florida Memorial 30, Cumberland 28
Arkansas Baptist 31, Christian Community College 27
Upper Iowa 24, Lincoln (Mo.) 18
West Virginia State 33, Fairmont State 20
Bluefield 26, VUL 13
Daytona Elite 34, Barber-Scotia 19
