by Tony Moss, Executive Director of I-AA Football
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - One more week is all that remains in the I-AA regular season. November 22nd figures to be an angst-filled Saturday for a number of would-be at-large qualifiers, who could see their playoff hopes dissolve if upsets occur elsewhere in the country.
In the Big Sky, a Montana State (6-5) win over Montana (9-2) would give MSU an automatic bid and swipe an at-large selection from someone else in the field.
In the Southland, a McNeese State (9-1) loss to Nicholls State (5-5) would mean entry into the bracket for either NSU or Stephen F. Austin (6-4), and another sharp pin in someone?s at-large bubble.
And if Villanova (7-3) can take out Delaware (10-1) in the Atlantic 10, the Wildcats would have a stronger case for at-large inclusion than several other fringe members of the postseason discussion.
What that means, interestingly, is that folks all over I-AA nation will take to rooting for Montana, McNeese State, and Delaware, the three I-AA (playoff-eligible) schools that already feature the sub-classification?s strongest fan bases.
If the Grizzlies, Cowboys, and Blue Hens all prevail, below is a projection of how the playoff field could look, formed in a very rough, unofficial, and completely unscientific manner:
Western Illinois @ Montana
Northern Arizona @ No. 1 McNeese State
Jacksonville State at Southern Illinois
Florida Atlantic @ No. 4 Northern Iowa
Colgate @ UMass
Lehigh @ No. 3 Delaware
Appalachian State @ North Carolina A&T
Western Kentucky @ No. 2 Wofford
Again, let?s review the I-AA playoff particulars for the unacquainted.
Sixteen playoff teams will be announced on Nov. 23th, of which eight will be automatic qualifiers (the champions of the Atlantic 10, Big Sky, Gateway, MEAC, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern and Southland conferences) and eight chosen as at-large entries. A committee of I-AA directors of athletics will be asked to judge at-large teams on the following points - which come straight out of the NCAA manual:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team?s strength of schedule; however, more than three losses will place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents; and
5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken. Once they?ve got their 16, the committee will determine the top four seeds, and will attempt to fill in the rest of the bracket with potential regional matchups in mind. Two teams from the same conference cannot meet in the first round.
A few additional clarifications:
-The Ivy League does not participate in the I-AA playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.
-The SWAC will send its division champs to the SWAC title game on Dec. 13th, so only second-place teams and below are playoff eligible. Grambling and Southern, which play in the Nov. 29 Bayou Classic, are also ineligible for the playoffs due to conflict with the first round.
-The five-team Big South Conference?s teams are eligible for the playoffs, but the league does not have an automatic bid.
-The 23 teams from the three "I-AA mid-major" conferences (MAAC, NEC, Pioneer) are technically playoff eligible, though no team from any of those non-scholarship leagues has ever been chosen for the field.
Below is The Sports Network?s current take on the prospects of the I-AA playoff living. Schools are ranked by their probability of making the 16-team field, and not by current Top 25 rank or potential playoff seeds. Teams that have already clinched automatic playoff berths are noted with an asterisk (*). Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team?s remaining schedule is listed along with a brief capsule of its chances:
*1. Wofford (10-1, 8-0 Southern)
REGULAR SEASON COMPLETE
THE DEAL: The Terriers finished their regular season with a 7-6 win over Furman on Saturday, and with an 8-0 SoCon record and 10 straight victories to end the season, are a near-lock for a top four seed.
*2. Northern Iowa (9-2, 6-1 Gateway)
REGULAR SEASON COMPLETE
THE DEAL: The Panthers wrapped up the Gateway automatic bid with a 43-40 win over previously unbeaten Southern Illinois on Saturday, and Mark Farley?s team should be considered strongly for a top four seed.
*3. North Carolina A&T (10-1, 6-0 MEAC)
THE GAMES: vs. South Carolina State (11/22)
THE DEAL: A&T downed Hampton, 38-28, to take the MEAC automatic bid and earn its first spot in the field of 16 since 1999. The Aggies are probably not a top four candidate due to strength of schedule, but with a strong home following, could host a first-round contest.
*4. Colgate (11-0, 6-0 Patriot)
THE GAME: at Holy Cross (11/22)
THE DEAL: The Raiders sewed up the Patriot League automatic after a win over Fordham this past weekend, and will be the only undefeated team in the field of 16 if they prevail over Holy Cross. Contrary to previous reports, Colgate did submit a bid to host a first-round game, though the probable tiny crowd that would descend upon Hamilton on Thanksgiving weekend means the committee is unlikely to award the Raiders a home game. A Colgate/UMass first round matchup seems probable.
5. McNeese State (9-1, 4-0 Southland)
THE GAME: at Nicholls State (11/22)
THE DEAL: The top-ranked Cowboys are one step closer to an outright Southland title after they defeated Northwestern State on Saturday, and will likely be the top overall seed if they knock out Nicholls State this week. If Tommy Tate?s team stumbles and doesn?t win the SLC crown, they should still warrant a first-round home game.
6. Southern Illinois (10-1, 6-1 Gateway)
REGULAR SEASON COMPLETE
THE DEAL: The Salukis fell to Northern Iowa on Saturday, forfeiting the outright Gateway title and an automatic bid. SIU should still be a strong contender for a first-round home game, but the school?s weak non-conference schedule probably eliminates them from contention for a top four seed.
7. Delaware (10-1, 7-1 Atlantic 10)
THE GAME: at Villanova (11/22)
THE DEAL: The Blue Hens are in the driver?s seat for the A-10 automatic bid, needing a win against struggling Villanova to find themselves in the field for the first time since 2000. K.C. Keeler?s club is in line for a top four seed, and if they beat the Wildcats on Saturday, expect Lehigh to visit Delaware Stadium the following week.
8. Montana (9-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
THE GAME: at Montana State (11/22)
THE DEAL: The Grizzlies earned at least a piece of the Big Sky championship following a win over Eastern Washington, and will now attempt to claim the outright league title by downing Montana State this Saturday. UM would probably need some help in the form of a loss by McNeese State or Delaware in order to claim a top four seed, but a first-round game at Washington-Grizzly Stadium is likely in any event.
9. Northern Arizona (8-3, 5-2 Big Sky)
REGULAR SEASON COMPLETE
THE DEAL: The Lumberjacks all but confirmed an at-large entry by defeating Sam Houston State on Saturday, and will now await word on their first-round destination. The smart money is on McNeese State, since NAU and MSU are considered by the committee to be part of the same region.
10. Western Illinois (8-3, 5-2 Gateway)
REGULAR SEASON COMPLETE
THE DEAL: WIU is in terrific at-large condition after taking down Southwest Missouri State, but the Leathernecks might not be too jacked about one potential first-round destination ? Missoula, Montana. If the Southland fails to put a second team in the field, Don Patterson?s team might be the default choice to be sent to chilly Montana.
11. Massachusetts (9-2, 7-1 Atlantic 10)
THE GAME: Rhode Island (11/22)
THE DEAL: UMass failed in its bid to wrap up the Atlantic 10 automatic on Saturday, dropping a three-overtime thriller to Delaware. The Minutemen could still claim the automatic with a win and a UD loss at Villanova, and are almost assured of a spot in the field of 16 no matter what occurs this week. A 10-2 record would probably mean at least one home game, and Colgate or Lehigh are potential visitors to Amherst.
12. Florida Atlantic (8-2, Independent)
THE GAME: at Florida International (11/22)
THE DEAL: FAU would be nearly impossible to keep out at 9-2, and the committee will likely send the Owls packing in the first round. Whichever team they play will be of a higher quality than most of those in their future home, the quasi-I-A Sun Belt Conference.
13. Western Kentucky (8-3, 5-2 Gateway)
REGULAR SEASON COMPLETE
THE DEAL: Unless the committee resists placing four teams from one league into the field, or there are bid-stealing upsets in the A-10, Big Sky, and Southland next week, WKU is a virtual lock for at-large inclusion. The Hilltoppers, whose losses are to Auburn, Western Illinois, and Southern Illinois, could travel (by bus, significantly) to Wofford in round number one.
14. Villanova (7-3, 5-3 Atlantic 10)
THE GAME: Delaware (11/22)
THE DEAL: The Wildcats have come unglued, losing three of their last four, but would still be worthy of a playoff spot if they can find a way to take down Delaware this Saturday. As the Atlantic 10?s third entry, the ?Cats would be a great candidate to travel in the first round, and noting the improbability of a regionally balanced field this year, a trip to Gateway country is not out of the question.
15. Jacksonville State (7-3, 6-1 Ohio Valley)
THE GAME: at Southeast Missouri (11/22)
THE DEAL: The Gamecocks? quest for a first-ever I-AA playoff bid will come down to this Saturday?s trip to Southeast Missouri. With a win, Jack Crowe?s team would likely head to Southern Illinois or Wofford in the first round.
16. Southeast Missouri (5-6, 5-2 Ohio Valley)
THE GAME: Jacksonville State (11/22)
THE DEAL: Streaking SEMO is one win away from claiming its first I-AA playoff bid in school history, and nearby Southern Illinois (45 miles) would almost definitely be the Indians? first-round destination.
17. Montana State (6-5, 4-2 Big Sky)
THE GAME: Montana (11/22)
THE DEAL:The Bobcats are a win over Montana away from a co-Big Sky title and the I-AA playoffs for the second straight year, and an MSU victory would squash the playoff hopes of some bubble team in I-AA nation. If Mike Kramer?s team makes the field, it could be sent to McNeese State for the first round once again.
18. Lehigh (7-3, 5-1 Patriot)
THE GAME: Lafayette (11/22)
THE DEAL: The Mountain Hawks drilled Bucknell (45-9) on Saturday, and were helped in their at-large quest by the losses of Cal Poly and Villanova. Another VU loss would do wonders for Lehigh?s chances, and Brown and White fans must also root for Montana and McNeese State to take care of business in their respective conference races. If Pete Lembo?s team makes the field, a first-round trip to Delaware should not come as a surprise.
19. Appalachian State (7-4, 6-2 Southern)
REGULAR SEASON COMPLETE
THE DEAL: The seas have begun to part just a tad for the Mountaineers. If nothing unexpected occurs in the Atlantic 10, Big Sky or Southland races this Saturday, ASU will probably be battling Bethune-Cookman for the final at-large position. App State?s strength of schedule would blow B-CC?s away, but with four losses to the Wildcats? two (assuming B-CC beats Florida A&M), the discussion could be lengthy.
20. Bethune-Cookman (8-2, 5-2 MEAC)
THE GAME: vs. Florida A&M (11/22)
THE DEAL: The Wildcats were helped by Hampton?s loss to North Carolina A&T on Saturday, and would be the first at-large considered from the MEAC. But the relative weakness of B-CC?s schedule (its nine wins would be over schools with a combined 31 wins), would severely hinder the case of Alvin Wyatt?s team. They?ll need a win and lots of help.
21. Stephen F. Austin (6-4, 3-1 Southland)
THE GAME: at Northwestern State (11/22)
THE DEAL: The Lumberjacks stayed alive in the Southland race by defeating Nicholls State on Saturday, and now need a win and a McNeese State loss this week to earn the automatic bid. SFA would win a three-way SLC tie-breaker with the Colonels and Cowboys because it has been absent from the playoffs for the longest period of the three.
22. Nicholls State (5-5, 3-1 Southland)
THE GAME: McNeese State (11/22)
THE DEAL: Nicholls forfeited control of its own destiny by losing to Stephen F. Austin on Saturday, and now must defeat top-ranked McNeese while SFA loses at Northwestern State in order to win the Southland title. Not impossible, but a far-fetched scenario.
23. Idaho State (7-4, 4-3 Big Sky)
THE GAME: Southern Utah (11/22)
THE DEAL: Though it seems unlikely that the committee would take two three-or-more loss at-larges from the same league, Idaho State?s resume would actually be quite comparable to Appalachian State?s, provided it beats Southern Utah this week. The Bengals would have one great win (Montana) and a few decent ones (Northern Colorado, Montana State, Cal Poly), a I-A loss (Boise State) and a couple of decisive defeats that will be tough to swallow (Weber State, Sacramento State). The chances appear slim for a four-loss team that failed to play its way in by winning consistently over the last month, but ISU could at least elicit some discussion at 8-4.
24. Maine (7-4, 5-3 Atlantic 10)
THE GAME: at New Hampshire (11/22)
THE DEAL: If teams like Villanova, Lehigh, Bethune-Cookman, and Florida Atlantic lose this week and the committee is desperate for an at-large, an 8-4 Maine club could garner some discussion. The Black Bears? four losses (Montana, UMass, Northeastern, Delaware) are all against current members of the Top 25, but only one win (Villanova) will have much redeeming quality in the committee?s eyes. Maine?s strength of schedule and Sagarin rating will probably be better than some of the at-larges in the field, but that evidence probably won?t be compelling enough to get Jack Cosgrove?s team in the bracket.
Special Report III - I-AA Playoffs - Tension on the Bubble
