SIAC title race update: Four teams vying for SIAC title spots

[Journalist]

Four teams are chasing two spots in the Nov. 14 SIAC Championship Game, and only one can clinch without any tiebreaker. Central State (5-1) is in if it beats Edward Waters and Benedict. Kentucky State (6-1), Benedict and Edward Waters (both 5-1) also control their own fate, with one catch. If all three finish 7-1, the tie goes to opponents’ win percentage and regional ranking. Kentucky State is the clear favorite: it has a 79% chance of reaching the title game and a 43% chance of winning it, and it needs only to beat Morehouse. Tuskegee is a 1% long shot that needs a pileup of 6-2 teams. Everyone else is eliminated.

 

[Journalist]

The race comes down to two head-to-head matchups.

• Edward Waters at Central State (Oct. 31) is effectively an elimination game. The winner’s odds of reaching the title game jump past 60%, while the loser's fall to 3% or lower.
• Central State at Benedict (Nov. 7) is next. Benedict’s odds go to 84% with a win and drop to 7% with a loss.
• Kentucky State vs. Morehouse in Nassau (Nov. 7) is the wild card. A Morehouse upset drops Kentucky State from 93% to 30% and pushes the other three contenders above 50%.
• Upsets by Allen or Savannah State would also shake up the race, though both are unlikely.

 

[Journalist]

Central State has the hardest road in the league. Its two remaining opponents are 5-1 contenders, with a combined 10-2 record, and one of those games is on the road. That’s why its title-game odds trail its “controls destiny” status.


Kentucky State has the lightest load among the contenders: one game, against a .500 Morehouse, at a neutral site. Benedict gets both of its games at home. Edward Waters splits a road toss-up at Central State with a home game it should win against Allen.


Tuskegee has the easiest path of any team still alive, at Lane and at home against Miles. Albany State’s opponents are just 3-8 combined, but it’s already eliminated.

 

[Gramfam92]

Kentucky may have the lightest load ,but they just escaped with a hail Mary against 1 win Savannah state. That loss would have made things even crazier down the stretch.