Of course recent polls before Election Day have been different than polls on Election Day.
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Democrat in striking distance of flipping state Trump won by 23 points—poll
Story by Andrew Stanton
Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith held a 6-point lead over Democrat Scott Colom in a new poll of the Senate race in Mississippi, a state that favored President Donald Trump by more than 20 points in the 2024 election.
Mississippi is not ordinarily seen as a competitive state for Democrats; it’s been one of the most consistently conservative states across the country in recent elections. But Democrats like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg have signaled support for Colom, a district attorney, as the party hopes to expand the battleground.
Due to its large Black population, Mississippi has been a high-floor, low-ceiling state for Democrats; they regularly receive more than 40 percent of the vote in the Magnolia State but have struggled to win a majority due to its intense racial polarization. But Democrats hope that a favorable environment, as well as a possible surge in Black turnout across the South, could make this race more competitive than expected.
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But the state has been closer in some other races. In 2020, Hyde-Smith won by 10 points over Democrat Mike Espy, 54 percent to 44 percent. She won by less than 8 points in 2018, about 54 percent to 46 percent.
Its gubernatorial race was also close in 2023, when GOP Governor Tate Reeves defeated Democrat Brandon Presley by only about 3 points.
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Elections forecasters also view the race as less competitive, with the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classifying the race as solid or safe for Republicans.
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Democrat in striking distance of flipping state Trump won by 23 points—poll
Story by Andrew Stanton
Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith held a 6-point lead over Democrat Scott Colom in a new poll of the Senate race in Mississippi, a state that favored President Donald Trump by more than 20 points in the 2024 election.
Mississippi is not ordinarily seen as a competitive state for Democrats; it’s been one of the most consistently conservative states across the country in recent elections. But Democrats like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg have signaled support for Colom, a district attorney, as the party hopes to expand the battleground.
Due to its large Black population, Mississippi has been a high-floor, low-ceiling state for Democrats; they regularly receive more than 40 percent of the vote in the Magnolia State but have struggled to win a majority due to its intense racial polarization. But Democrats hope that a favorable environment, as well as a possible surge in Black turnout across the South, could make this race more competitive than expected.
.....
But the state has been closer in some other races. In 2020, Hyde-Smith won by 10 points over Democrat Mike Espy, 54 percent to 44 percent. She won by less than 8 points in 2018, about 54 percent to 46 percent.
Its gubernatorial race was also close in 2023, when GOP Governor Tate Reeves defeated Democrat Brandon Presley by only about 3 points.
.....
Elections forecasters also view the race as less competitive, with the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classifying the race as solid or safe for Republicans.
