With two weeks left, three teams are racing for two spots in the title game. Virginia State and Virginia Union are both 6-0 and control their own fate. Virginia State gets in by beating Johnson C. Smith on Oct. 31, and Virginia Union gets in by beating Virginia State on Nov. 7. Johnson C. Smith (5-1) needs to win out. Even then, if all three teams finish 7-1, the Golden Bulls would be relying on a three-way tiebreaker the CIAA hasn’t published. Bowie State needs a long chain of upsets. Fayetteville State can’t reach the top two but can still make Durham the No. 4 seed. Everyone else is eliminated. My estimates give Virginia State (44%) and Virginia Union (42%) roughly even title odds, with JCSU a live 14% underdog.
Most of the race hinges on Saturday, Oct. 31. If Virginia State wins at Johnson C. Smith, both Virginia schools are all but locked into the title game. If JCSU wins, the race opens up. The same afternoon, Bowie State visits Fayetteville State in effectively a playoff for the last ticket to Durham. On Nov. 7, Virginia State hosts Virginia Union, which will either decide the No. 1 seed or knock one of them out of the title game. JCSU’s trip to Livingstone is the trap game: a loss there could drop the Golden Bulls out of championship weekend entirely.
Virginia State’s undefeated record faces the toughest test in the league. Its last two opponents, Johnson C. Smith and Virginia Union, are 13-3 combined. Virginia Union has the easier path, with a neutral-site game against Lincoln in Philadelphia before the trip to Petersburg. Johnson C. Smith’s slate is tough, but it plays Virginia State at home. Bowie State and Fayetteville State have manageable schedules around their Oct. 31 game against each other. Shaw and Elizabeth City State finish against the conference’s weakest teams. Bluefield State’s last two games give it its best shot at a first win.
