Tigerpride
THE Logical ONE
PV is gonna whoop em tho...this is just small talk about "what if".
AAMU in the playoffs: What are the chances?
- Thread starter Kenn Rashad
- Start date
PV is gonna whoop em tho...this is just small talk about "what if".
Mr. SWAC
F*** THE LAKERS!!!!!!
We (AAMU) stand a good outside chance of making it to the playoffs (granted AAMU and JSU wins over the weekend), because it's all gonna rest on where we are finally ranked at the end of the regular season. If AAMU jumps up to #18, we are in. Being between #19-21 is choppy waters. Basically we would need help. Here's the scenario:
Conference champion
At-Large bid
Eliminated/Non eligible
Bold= Bubble team
1. Northern Iowa Panthers (70) 10-0 2,474 1 Gateway
2. North Dakota State Bison (23) 10-0 2,291 2 Great West
3. Montana Grizzlies (10) 10-0 2,269 3 Big Sky
4. McNeese State Cowboys (3) 10-0 2,260 4 Southland
5. Southern Illinois Salukis 9-1 2,084 5 Gateway
6. Appalachian State Mountaineers 8-2 1,982 7 SoCon
7. Richmond Spiders 8-2 1,845 9 Colonial
8. Massachusetts Minutemen 8-2 1,841 8 Colonial
9. Delaware Blue Hens 8-2 1,591 6 Colonial
10. Delaware State Hornets 9-1 1,538 10 MEAC
11. Yale Bulldogs 9-0 1,417 12 Ivy
12. Eastern Kentucky Colonels 8-2 1,408 13 OVC
13. Wofford Terriers 8-3 1,366 15 SoCon
14. James Madison Dukes 7-3 1,253 16 Colonial
15. Eastern Washington Eagles 7-3 942 20 Big Sky
16. Georgia Southern Eagles 7-3 892 11 SoCon
17. Youngstown State Penguins 7-4 742 21 Gateway
18. Fordham Rams 8-2 672 22 Patriot
19. Grambling State Tigers 8-2 653 17 SWAC
20. New Hampshire Wildcats 6-4 568 14 Colonial
21. Eastern Illinois Panthers 7-3 539 25 OVC
22. Hofstra Pride 7-3 380 18 Colonial
23. Alabama A&M Bulldogs 8-2 307 NR SWAC
24. Elon Phoenix 6-4 223 19 SoCon
25. Cal Poly Mustangs 6-4 188 24 Great West
I believe the Patriot league gets an automatic bid, so that would put #18 Fordham in the playoffs. The Colonial Athletic Assoc. Conference champion is not yet determined, but it's between Richmond, Massachusetts, and Delaware. By my list we have 13 teams in the play-offs with 3 open slots to be filled. AAMU is in competition with 7 other schools for those final three slots. We would need 4/7 of those bubble teams to lose this weekend. Like I said before, with help, AAMU has a good outside shot at the playoffs. The question though being who out of the seven (7) bubble teams will lose over this weekend? Then the rest is up to the selection committee.
Myself, personally don't feel that six (6) teams from the Colonial Athletic should make the playoffs. There should be a cut-off somewhere. I would hope no more than 5 teams from that conference are allowed in. Once you let that many from one (1) conference in it then becomes a question of fairness and credibility.
Just my take.
Conference champion
At-Large bid
Eliminated/Non eligible
Bold= Bubble team
1. Northern Iowa Panthers (70) 10-0 2,474 1 Gateway
2. North Dakota State Bison (23) 10-0 2,291 2 Great West
3. Montana Grizzlies (10) 10-0 2,269 3 Big Sky
4. McNeese State Cowboys (3) 10-0 2,260 4 Southland
5. Southern Illinois Salukis 9-1 2,084 5 Gateway
6. Appalachian State Mountaineers 8-2 1,982 7 SoCon
7. Richmond Spiders 8-2 1,845 9 Colonial
8. Massachusetts Minutemen 8-2 1,841 8 Colonial
9. Delaware Blue Hens 8-2 1,591 6 Colonial
10. Delaware State Hornets 9-1 1,538 10 MEAC
11. Yale Bulldogs 9-0 1,417 12 Ivy
12. Eastern Kentucky Colonels 8-2 1,408 13 OVC
13. Wofford Terriers 8-3 1,366 15 SoCon
14. James Madison Dukes 7-3 1,253 16 Colonial
15. Eastern Washington Eagles 7-3 942 20 Big Sky
16. Georgia Southern Eagles 7-3 892 11 SoCon
17. Youngstown State Penguins 7-4 742 21 Gateway
18. Fordham Rams 8-2 672 22 Patriot
19. Grambling State Tigers 8-2 653 17 SWAC
20. New Hampshire Wildcats 6-4 568 14 Colonial
21. Eastern Illinois Panthers 7-3 539 25 OVC
22. Hofstra Pride 7-3 380 18 Colonial
23. Alabama A&M Bulldogs 8-2 307 NR SWAC
24. Elon Phoenix 6-4 223 19 SoCon
25. Cal Poly Mustangs 6-4 188 24 Great West
I believe the Patriot league gets an automatic bid, so that would put #18 Fordham in the playoffs. The Colonial Athletic Assoc. Conference champion is not yet determined, but it's between Richmond, Massachusetts, and Delaware. By my list we have 13 teams in the play-offs with 3 open slots to be filled. AAMU is in competition with 7 other schools for those final three slots. We would need 4/7 of those bubble teams to lose this weekend. Like I said before, with help, AAMU has a good outside shot at the playoffs. The question though being who out of the seven (7) bubble teams will lose over this weekend? Then the rest is up to the selection committee.
Myself, personally don't feel that six (6) teams from the Colonial Athletic should make the playoffs. There should be a cut-off somewhere. I would hope no more than 5 teams from that conference are allowed in. Once you let that many from one (1) conference in it then becomes a question of fairness and credibility.
Just my take.
CEE DOG
Well-Known Member
I saw this on the meac board
http://community.meacfans.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/5501054881/m/9361044654
The selection committee is charged with picking the best eight at-large entrants, with no regard to what conference they come from.
At the end of last weekend, seven of the eight automatic berths were wrapped up, with just the Colonial Athletic Association waiting to hand out its bid. With eight at-large entries to be handed out by the FCS selection committee when they meet this weekend in Indianapolis, let's look at the landscape heading into the final regular season games.
The following teams have clinched automatic bids:
1. Northern Iowa (10-0) - The top-ranked Panthers had already clinched the auto bid a week earlier, but won the Gateway Conference outright by drilling winless Indiana State, 68-14. UNI gets a tune-up on Saturday against another winless team, Southern Utah, and can clinch the top-seed of the tournament with one more win.
2. Montana (10-0) - The No. 3-ranked Grizzlies were sluggish again offensively in a 27-14 win over Idaho State, but they managed to clinch the Big Sky Conference crown outright after earning the auto bid the previous week. Of more concern were injuries. Running back Lex Hilliard (834 yards, 12 TDs) missed the game with hand surgery, and top wide receiver Ryan Bagley (46 catches, 692 yards) broke an arm. The Grizzlies now play Montana State in the "Brawl of the Wild" Saturday, on the road in inhospitable Bozeman, needing a win to secure a top-four seed.
Montana doesn't have just the upset-minded Bobcats to worry about, but also the distraction of having three players dismissed from the team over the weekend after an alleged robbery. Among the players arrested and arraigned was reserve running back Greg Coleman, who rushed a team-high 18 times for 74 yards and a touchdown and caught two passes for 13 yards against Idaho State. More on the Montana arrests later in the week.
3. McNeese State (10-0) - The No. 4 Cowboys added a share of the Southland Conference title by beating Northwestern State, 27-21, to go with the auto bid they had clinched a week earlier. McNeese State can claim the Southland title outright by beating second-place Central Arkansas on Saturday, and can also claim one of the top four seeds. But the Cowboys may have to do it without some injured players, including defensive end and Buchanan Award finalist Bryan Smith, who sprained an ankle.
4. Delaware State (10-1) - The No. 10 Hornets won for the fourth week in a row with a fourth-quarter comeback. Delaware State's offense struggled for most of the game before quarterback Vashon Winton stepped things up at the end of the game. The Hornets have a tune-up on Saturday at home against a rebuilding Howard team, but there is little on the line with the auto bid and MEAC title already wrapped up. Win or lose, DSU will almost certainly play Delaware for the first time in the first round of the playoffs.
5. Eastern Kentucky (8-2) - The No. 12 Colonels won a business-like 28-14 decision at Austin Peay to capture the automatic bid in the Ohio Valley Conference. Eastern Kentucky can wrap up the title outright if it beats Tennessee Tech at home on Saturday, or if second-place Eastern Illinois loses at home against Samford. No matter what happens, the Colonels are likely on the road for the first round of the playoffs.
6. Wofford (8-3) - The No. 13 Terriers shook themselves out of a late-season funk with a 42-16 thumping of Chattanooga on the road. Wofford clinched the auto bid in the Southern Conference when The Citadel downed Elon 42-31, and Georgia Southern lost 24-22 to Furman when a last-second field goal went wide right. Elon would have won the auto bid with a victory and that left the door ajar for Georgia Southern to claim it. Now, the Terriers will likely share the SoCon title with Appalachian State, but are safely in the field with their head-to-head win over the Mountaineers. Wofford has an off week to prepare for the playoffs.
7. Fordham (8-2) - The No. 18 Rams had a week off to celebrate their Patriot League championship win over Holy Cross the previous Saturday. Fordham has an easy tune-up on Saturday at home against Bucknell, and then should be on the road for the playoffs.
8. The eighth and final auto bid will go to the winner of the CAA, with No. 7 Richmond (8-2) and No. 8 Massachusetts (8-2) currently tied at the top. Tie breaking procedures in the conference are so convoluted that CAA officials sent out a release over the weekend that had things wrong, and had to send out another set. If Richmond wins against William & Mary at home, or UMass beats Hofstra on the road and the other first-place team loses, the winner takes the CAA title outright. If both lose, Delaware and James Madison enter the picture with wins at Villanova and at home with Towson respectively. Things get complicated from there. If Richmond and UMass are tied for the title, a vote of the CAA athletic directors will determine the auto bid. Richmond, with a pair of wins over top-10-ranked Delaware and James Madison in the past, is considered to be the favorite for the auto bid among league observers. Whoever wins the auto bid will likely have an outside shot at a top-four seed, if one or two of the undefeated teams lose on Saturday.
So with that out of the way, we'll tackle the eight at-large berths and evaluate the hopes of the serious candidates, ranking teams from No. 9 through 20 in order of their playoff chances to make the 16-team field.
9. Southern Illinois (9-1) - The No. 5 Salukis have put themselves in consideration for a top-four seed by finishing second in the tough Gateway and by losing only to No. 1 Northern Iowa, 30-24. Southern Illinois took a 34-24 win at home against a talented Illinois State team, and finishes the regular season with an interesting matchup Saturday at Hampton. This game amounts to a playoff dress-rehearsal against a Pirate club that has been in the playoffs for three years as the MEAC champion. The Salukis need the win to add to their resume for a possible seed.
10. Appalachian State (8-2) - The No. 6 Mountaineers would seem to be safely in the field, win or lose on Saturday against a weak Chattanooga team. But a convincing victory at home might help ASU earn a top-four seed, as well as a share of its third successive Southern Conference title. The Mountaineers seem to be peaking at the right time, as demonstrated by a record-breaking 79-35 victory over Western Carolina last Saturday in the battle for the Old Mountain Jug. With that seminal win over Michigan to start the season, its track record as the two-time defending national champion and SoCon co-champion on its resume, Appalachian State will be a favorite for a seed with one more win.
11. Massachusetts or Richmond - Whatever team doesn't receive the auto bid from the CAA should be firmly entrenched in the playoff field with a win. Richmond put itself in position for the CAA title with its gut-wrenching, five-overtime 62-56 victory over Delaware last Saturday on the road, just two weeks after a 17-16 win against JMU. UMass has stumbled down the stretch, with a disastrous loss at Rhode Island two weeks ago. But the Minutemen will be in the field with a victory over Hofstra.
12. Delaware (8-2) - The No. 9 Blue Hens lost control of their own destiny with the loss to Richmond, coming after back-to-back wins against Navy and James Madison. The Blue Hens now must defeat arch-rival Villanova on the road to wrap up a playoff berth. Delaware is likely in the field, win or lose, and will probably host Delaware State in the first round. But a loss to the Wildcats would make for an uncomfortable night of sleep for Delaware coach K.C. Keeler on Saturday. If Richmond and UMass lose and Delaware wins, the Blue Hens could still sneak away with the CAA auto bid.
13. James Madison (7-3) - The No. 16 Dukes have a simple task on Saturday. Beat Towson at home and advance to the playoffs. Lose and pack up the football equipment for 2008. JMU was sailing for most of the season, winning six straight games at one point. But losses in back-to-back weeks to Richmond and Delaware have the Dukes on the ropes. Remarkably, JMU can still win the CAA auto bid, if Richmond, UMass and Delaware all lose on Saturday.
14. Eastern Washington (7-3) - The No. 15 Eagles are carrying a big secret as they enter their final regular-season game at home against Weber State. Eastern Washington is probably playing better than any team in the Big Sky right now, and could prove to be a dangerous first-round opponent. Win and the Eagles are almost certainly in the field, though that will be tougher than many might think against a opponent in Weber that has been averaging 58 points per game in the past three weeks. Only a one-point loss to Montana is preventing EWU from possibly winning the Big Sky auto bid.
15. Georgia Southern (7-3) - The No. 16 Eagles have painted themselves into a corner with the last-second 24-22 loss to Furman. Georgia Southern must beat an FBS team, Colorado State, on the road to advance to the playoffs. Had the Eagles kicked a very makeable 31-yard field goal last week, they would have won a share of the Southern Conference title and the auto bid. The good news is that Colorado State is 1-10 and has struggled to stop the run. Quarterback Jayson Foster should like that. The bad news is that the Rams are better than their record indicates, with a number of close losses. With a win, there is no doubt that GSU deserves to be in the field, and the Eagles are also likely to draw a first-round home playoff game.
16. Eastern Illinois (7-3) - The No. 21 Panthers have quietly constructed a solid season, and are poised to finish second in the OVC. But Eastern Illinois doesn't have a signature victory. A 37-23 win at Jacksonville State kept the Panthers alive for a playoff berth, and the thing that might help them the most is the lack of quality teams to beat them out of a spot. EIU will likely draw a bid by beating 4-6 Samford at home.
17. Hofstra (7-3) - The No. 22 Pride were rolling along after starting 6-0, including a win against Furman when it was ranked 11th in the country. But Hofstra has dropped three of its past four games, including a 35-31 loss to Northeastern last weekend. Losing star running back Kareem Huggins to a season-ending knee injury also hasn't helps things. The Pride doesn't have a big win since beating Furman, though a victory over UMass might convince the committee that Hofstra belongs in the field. Hurting the Pride's chances is the fact that they might be the fifth-best team in the CAA. No conference has ever gotten more than four teams in.
18. Norfolk State (7-3) - The unranked Spartans showed their playoff worth in a hard-fought loss to Delaware State, but they are likely to stay home without some help from other teams. A loss to Howard could turn out to kill NSU's chances. But finishing second in a vastly improved MEAC and beating teams like South Carolina State and Hampton make the Spartans a team that should at least be considered.
19. Colgate (7-3) - The unranked Raiders can keep alive their playoff hopes with a win against a quality Holy Cross team Saturday on the road. But there probably will need to be several teams that lose from the above list for Colgate to sneak in. The Raiders have out-of-conference wins over Towson and Albany, and one of their losses is to UMass. But there really isn't much for Colgate to hang its hopes on.
20. Alabama A&M (8-2) - The No. 23 Bulldogs still have hopes of winning a berth in the SWAC championship game against Grambling, if Alabama A&M beats Prairie View and Jackson State loses to Alcorn State. But with Alcorn State just 2-7, its isn't likely that Jackson State would stumble. That would make the Bulldogs eligible for the playoffs, and the A&M administration has already let the committee know it would accept a bid, if it was tendered. The problem for the Bulldogs is that they have played a weak schedule, without a signature win.
Should there be a total meltdown on Saturday, teams such as Albany (7-3), Prairie View (6-3), Dayton (10-1) and San Diego (9-1) can hope for invitations. Teams such as No. 17 Youngstown State, No. 20 New Hampshire and No. 24 Elon can pray for help as four-loss teams, but those prayers aren't likely to be answered.
Albany would earn the Northeast Conference title and a berth against Dayton in the Gridiron Classic, and either team could opt out of that event if they are invited to the playoffs.
Albany has played a competitive schedule (losses to Montana, Hofstra and Colgate) and has a win over playoff-bound Fordham. Dayton has wins against Fordham and San Diego, but also has two sub-Division I victories.
More on the playoffs, seeds and my personal prediction for the brackets, along with a wrap-up on last week's games, later this week.
http://community.meacfans.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/5501054881/m/9361044654
The selection committee is charged with picking the best eight at-large entrants, with no regard to what conference they come from.
At the end of last weekend, seven of the eight automatic berths were wrapped up, with just the Colonial Athletic Association waiting to hand out its bid. With eight at-large entries to be handed out by the FCS selection committee when they meet this weekend in Indianapolis, let's look at the landscape heading into the final regular season games.
The following teams have clinched automatic bids:
1. Northern Iowa (10-0) - The top-ranked Panthers had already clinched the auto bid a week earlier, but won the Gateway Conference outright by drilling winless Indiana State, 68-14. UNI gets a tune-up on Saturday against another winless team, Southern Utah, and can clinch the top-seed of the tournament with one more win.
2. Montana (10-0) - The No. 3-ranked Grizzlies were sluggish again offensively in a 27-14 win over Idaho State, but they managed to clinch the Big Sky Conference crown outright after earning the auto bid the previous week. Of more concern were injuries. Running back Lex Hilliard (834 yards, 12 TDs) missed the game with hand surgery, and top wide receiver Ryan Bagley (46 catches, 692 yards) broke an arm. The Grizzlies now play Montana State in the "Brawl of the Wild" Saturday, on the road in inhospitable Bozeman, needing a win to secure a top-four seed.
Montana doesn't have just the upset-minded Bobcats to worry about, but also the distraction of having three players dismissed from the team over the weekend after an alleged robbery. Among the players arrested and arraigned was reserve running back Greg Coleman, who rushed a team-high 18 times for 74 yards and a touchdown and caught two passes for 13 yards against Idaho State. More on the Montana arrests later in the week.
3. McNeese State (10-0) - The No. 4 Cowboys added a share of the Southland Conference title by beating Northwestern State, 27-21, to go with the auto bid they had clinched a week earlier. McNeese State can claim the Southland title outright by beating second-place Central Arkansas on Saturday, and can also claim one of the top four seeds. But the Cowboys may have to do it without some injured players, including defensive end and Buchanan Award finalist Bryan Smith, who sprained an ankle.
4. Delaware State (10-1) - The No. 10 Hornets won for the fourth week in a row with a fourth-quarter comeback. Delaware State's offense struggled for most of the game before quarterback Vashon Winton stepped things up at the end of the game. The Hornets have a tune-up on Saturday at home against a rebuilding Howard team, but there is little on the line with the auto bid and MEAC title already wrapped up. Win or lose, DSU will almost certainly play Delaware for the first time in the first round of the playoffs.
5. Eastern Kentucky (8-2) - The No. 12 Colonels won a business-like 28-14 decision at Austin Peay to capture the automatic bid in the Ohio Valley Conference. Eastern Kentucky can wrap up the title outright if it beats Tennessee Tech at home on Saturday, or if second-place Eastern Illinois loses at home against Samford. No matter what happens, the Colonels are likely on the road for the first round of the playoffs.
6. Wofford (8-3) - The No. 13 Terriers shook themselves out of a late-season funk with a 42-16 thumping of Chattanooga on the road. Wofford clinched the auto bid in the Southern Conference when The Citadel downed Elon 42-31, and Georgia Southern lost 24-22 to Furman when a last-second field goal went wide right. Elon would have won the auto bid with a victory and that left the door ajar for Georgia Southern to claim it. Now, the Terriers will likely share the SoCon title with Appalachian State, but are safely in the field with their head-to-head win over the Mountaineers. Wofford has an off week to prepare for the playoffs.
7. Fordham (8-2) - The No. 18 Rams had a week off to celebrate their Patriot League championship win over Holy Cross the previous Saturday. Fordham has an easy tune-up on Saturday at home against Bucknell, and then should be on the road for the playoffs.
8. The eighth and final auto bid will go to the winner of the CAA, with No. 7 Richmond (8-2) and No. 8 Massachusetts (8-2) currently tied at the top. Tie breaking procedures in the conference are so convoluted that CAA officials sent out a release over the weekend that had things wrong, and had to send out another set. If Richmond wins against William & Mary at home, or UMass beats Hofstra on the road and the other first-place team loses, the winner takes the CAA title outright. If both lose, Delaware and James Madison enter the picture with wins at Villanova and at home with Towson respectively. Things get complicated from there. If Richmond and UMass are tied for the title, a vote of the CAA athletic directors will determine the auto bid. Richmond, with a pair of wins over top-10-ranked Delaware and James Madison in the past, is considered to be the favorite for the auto bid among league observers. Whoever wins the auto bid will likely have an outside shot at a top-four seed, if one or two of the undefeated teams lose on Saturday.
So with that out of the way, we'll tackle the eight at-large berths and evaluate the hopes of the serious candidates, ranking teams from No. 9 through 20 in order of their playoff chances to make the 16-team field.
9. Southern Illinois (9-1) - The No. 5 Salukis have put themselves in consideration for a top-four seed by finishing second in the tough Gateway and by losing only to No. 1 Northern Iowa, 30-24. Southern Illinois took a 34-24 win at home against a talented Illinois State team, and finishes the regular season with an interesting matchup Saturday at Hampton. This game amounts to a playoff dress-rehearsal against a Pirate club that has been in the playoffs for three years as the MEAC champion. The Salukis need the win to add to their resume for a possible seed.
10. Appalachian State (8-2) - The No. 6 Mountaineers would seem to be safely in the field, win or lose on Saturday against a weak Chattanooga team. But a convincing victory at home might help ASU earn a top-four seed, as well as a share of its third successive Southern Conference title. The Mountaineers seem to be peaking at the right time, as demonstrated by a record-breaking 79-35 victory over Western Carolina last Saturday in the battle for the Old Mountain Jug. With that seminal win over Michigan to start the season, its track record as the two-time defending national champion and SoCon co-champion on its resume, Appalachian State will be a favorite for a seed with one more win.
11. Massachusetts or Richmond - Whatever team doesn't receive the auto bid from the CAA should be firmly entrenched in the playoff field with a win. Richmond put itself in position for the CAA title with its gut-wrenching, five-overtime 62-56 victory over Delaware last Saturday on the road, just two weeks after a 17-16 win against JMU. UMass has stumbled down the stretch, with a disastrous loss at Rhode Island two weeks ago. But the Minutemen will be in the field with a victory over Hofstra.
12. Delaware (8-2) - The No. 9 Blue Hens lost control of their own destiny with the loss to Richmond, coming after back-to-back wins against Navy and James Madison. The Blue Hens now must defeat arch-rival Villanova on the road to wrap up a playoff berth. Delaware is likely in the field, win or lose, and will probably host Delaware State in the first round. But a loss to the Wildcats would make for an uncomfortable night of sleep for Delaware coach K.C. Keeler on Saturday. If Richmond and UMass lose and Delaware wins, the Blue Hens could still sneak away with the CAA auto bid.
13. James Madison (7-3) - The No. 16 Dukes have a simple task on Saturday. Beat Towson at home and advance to the playoffs. Lose and pack up the football equipment for 2008. JMU was sailing for most of the season, winning six straight games at one point. But losses in back-to-back weeks to Richmond and Delaware have the Dukes on the ropes. Remarkably, JMU can still win the CAA auto bid, if Richmond, UMass and Delaware all lose on Saturday.
14. Eastern Washington (7-3) - The No. 15 Eagles are carrying a big secret as they enter their final regular-season game at home against Weber State. Eastern Washington is probably playing better than any team in the Big Sky right now, and could prove to be a dangerous first-round opponent. Win and the Eagles are almost certainly in the field, though that will be tougher than many might think against a opponent in Weber that has been averaging 58 points per game in the past three weeks. Only a one-point loss to Montana is preventing EWU from possibly winning the Big Sky auto bid.
15. Georgia Southern (7-3) - The No. 16 Eagles have painted themselves into a corner with the last-second 24-22 loss to Furman. Georgia Southern must beat an FBS team, Colorado State, on the road to advance to the playoffs. Had the Eagles kicked a very makeable 31-yard field goal last week, they would have won a share of the Southern Conference title and the auto bid. The good news is that Colorado State is 1-10 and has struggled to stop the run. Quarterback Jayson Foster should like that. The bad news is that the Rams are better than their record indicates, with a number of close losses. With a win, there is no doubt that GSU deserves to be in the field, and the Eagles are also likely to draw a first-round home playoff game.
16. Eastern Illinois (7-3) - The No. 21 Panthers have quietly constructed a solid season, and are poised to finish second in the OVC. But Eastern Illinois doesn't have a signature victory. A 37-23 win at Jacksonville State kept the Panthers alive for a playoff berth, and the thing that might help them the most is the lack of quality teams to beat them out of a spot. EIU will likely draw a bid by beating 4-6 Samford at home.
17. Hofstra (7-3) - The No. 22 Pride were rolling along after starting 6-0, including a win against Furman when it was ranked 11th in the country. But Hofstra has dropped three of its past four games, including a 35-31 loss to Northeastern last weekend. Losing star running back Kareem Huggins to a season-ending knee injury also hasn't helps things. The Pride doesn't have a big win since beating Furman, though a victory over UMass might convince the committee that Hofstra belongs in the field. Hurting the Pride's chances is the fact that they might be the fifth-best team in the CAA. No conference has ever gotten more than four teams in.
18. Norfolk State (7-3) - The unranked Spartans showed their playoff worth in a hard-fought loss to Delaware State, but they are likely to stay home without some help from other teams. A loss to Howard could turn out to kill NSU's chances. But finishing second in a vastly improved MEAC and beating teams like South Carolina State and Hampton make the Spartans a team that should at least be considered.
19. Colgate (7-3) - The unranked Raiders can keep alive their playoff hopes with a win against a quality Holy Cross team Saturday on the road. But there probably will need to be several teams that lose from the above list for Colgate to sneak in. The Raiders have out-of-conference wins over Towson and Albany, and one of their losses is to UMass. But there really isn't much for Colgate to hang its hopes on.
20. Alabama A&M (8-2) - The No. 23 Bulldogs still have hopes of winning a berth in the SWAC championship game against Grambling, if Alabama A&M beats Prairie View and Jackson State loses to Alcorn State. But with Alcorn State just 2-7, its isn't likely that Jackson State would stumble. That would make the Bulldogs eligible for the playoffs, and the A&M administration has already let the committee know it would accept a bid, if it was tendered. The problem for the Bulldogs is that they have played a weak schedule, without a signature win.
Should there be a total meltdown on Saturday, teams such as Albany (7-3), Prairie View (6-3), Dayton (10-1) and San Diego (9-1) can hope for invitations. Teams such as No. 17 Youngstown State, No. 20 New Hampshire and No. 24 Elon can pray for help as four-loss teams, but those prayers aren't likely to be answered.
Albany would earn the Northeast Conference title and a berth against Dayton in the Gridiron Classic, and either team could opt out of that event if they are invited to the playoffs.
Albany has played a competitive schedule (losses to Montana, Hofstra and Colgate) and has a win over playoff-bound Fordham. Dayton has wins against Fordham and San Diego, but also has two sub-Division I victories.
More on the playoffs, seeds and my personal prediction for the brackets, along with a wrap-up on last week's games, later this week.
Tigerpride
THE Logical ONE
It's gonna be hard for AAMU to get that bid but it is good to see that it's possible for the SWAC to participate. However being sent to Northern Iowa or Montana would not be fun. 