Journalist
Listen up maggots! And that's an order!
Please tell me, is this correct, y'all?
SWAC Division Races Are Heating Up
- Thread starter Journalist
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Journalist
Listen up maggots! And that's an order!
It's insane that Texas Southern has a mathematical chance.
Parity my ass. This is bipolar football in a bipolar football season. Remarkable.
Journalist
Listen up maggots! And that's an order!
Here's more @TvSportsGuy21
A B-CU win gives the Wildcats the head-to-head over JSU and creates a three-way circle at the top: JSU beat AAMU, AAMU beat B-CU, and B-CU would have beaten JSU. Any tie among those three would then skip head-to-head and go to division record. AAMU gains almost as much as B-CU from a JSU loss, because it needs one JSU slip to control its own path.
For Alabama State, this is the first of two must-win games against the East leaders. A loss eliminates the Hornets except through a coin flip. B-CU is the quiet beneficiary of an AAMU loss: AAMU holds the head-to-head over B-CU, so every AAMU loss removes the team best positioned to block B-CU.
PV sits at 3-2 with no margin left. A loss caps the Panthers at 5-3, pulls them back into the Grambling-Alcorn-Southern pack, and leaves Southern with the head-to-head edge. That's why PV's chances fall from 56% to 27%.
For AAMU, a loss is its second, and then it needs JSU to collapse. A win keeps it within one JSU stumble of the title.
MVSU has to win every remaining game, so a loss here eliminates it.
The winner rises into the 24–29% range and also gains the head-to-head, which matters in any tie for the top. The loser falls to about 3–4% and is all but finished.
A PV win gives the Panthers the head-to-head over UAPB on top of their wins over Grambling, Alcorn and TSU. That leaves Southern as the only West team with a tiebreaker edge, which is why PV's chances jump to 68%.
A loss does the opposite. PV takes a division loss that weakens its division-record tiebreaker, UAPB gains the head-to-head, and UAPB rises from about 1% to 26%. Grambling's chances also double with a PV loss, because PV's head-to-head win over Grambling stops mattering once PV falls behind in the standings.
If JSU loses both this game and the MVSU game, its chances shrink to a small fraction. With one loss and two division wins, it keeps control.
A Grambling loss caps it at 5-3. Even then, PV's head-to-head win over Grambling means Grambling needs PV to lose twice to move ahead.
There's an extra edge for PV fans to watch. Southern holds the head-to-head over PV, so a Southern surge is the scenario PV fears most, while Alcorn lost to PV and needs PV to lose twice anyway.
For Alabama State, it only matters if the Hornets have already beaten AAMU and JSU.
For Alcorn, this is likely the hardest game in a run it must win completely. A win lifts the Braves from about 5% to 22%.
MVSU is alive here only if it beats JSU.
The winner gains the head-to-head and moves to 24–28%, and the loser is nearly finished. A Southern win is the worst case for PV, because Southern already holds the head-to-head over the Panthers. A Grambling win is less threatening to PV, since PV beat Grambling.
Why Each Game Matters
In date order. Percentages are the same coin-flip measures used in the table.Oct. 24 — Jackson State at Bethune-Cookman (East)
This is the first meeting between two of the three East leaders. A JSU win drops B-CU to 2-2 and leaves AAMU as the only team within a game. JSU would then clinch by winning out and would keep a cushion even if it lost one later.A B-CU win gives the Wildcats the head-to-head over JSU and creates a three-way circle at the top: JSU beat AAMU, AAMU beat B-CU, and B-CU would have beaten JSU. Any tie among those three would then skip head-to-head and go to division record. AAMU gains almost as much as B-CU from a JSU loss, because it needs one JSU slip to control its own path.
Oct. 31 — Alabama A&M vs. Alabama State, Magic City Classic (East)
AAMU can't afford a loss because JSU already holds the head-to-head. As long as AAMU wins out, it needs only one JSU loss to clinch. A loss here means it needs JSU to lose twice.For Alabama State, this is the first of two must-win games against the East leaders. A loss eliminates the Hornets except through a coin flip. B-CU is the quiet beneficiary of an AAMU loss: AAMU holds the head-to-head over B-CU, so every AAMU loss removes the team best positioned to block B-CU.
Nov. 7 — Alabama A&M at Prairie View (both divisions)
This is a non-division game for both teams. It doesn't change any head-to-head, but it hits both teams' records hard.PV sits at 3-2 with no margin left. A loss caps the Panthers at 5-3, pulls them back into the Grambling-Alcorn-Southern pack, and leaves Southern with the head-to-head edge. That's why PV's chances fall from 56% to 27%.
For AAMU, a loss is its second, and then it needs JSU to collapse. A win keeps it within one JSU stumble of the title.
Nov. 7 — Mississippi Valley State at Jackson State (East)
This is a division game for JSU, so a loss hurts twice. It gives MVSU the head-to-head and lowers JSU's division record, the first tiebreaker in any three-team tie. JSU's chances swing from 54% with a win to 20% with a loss, and AAMU gains most of the difference.MVSU has to win every remaining game, so a loss here eliminates it.
Nov. 7 — Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Grambling (West)
Both teams need Prairie View to slip, and both need to be positioned to take advantage when it does. This game decides which one is still standing.The winner rises into the 24–29% range and also gains the head-to-head, which matters in any tie for the top. The loser falls to about 3–4% and is all but finished.
Nov. 14 — Prairie View at Arkansas-Pine Bluff (West)
This is the most consequential game left. It's PV's only remaining division game.A PV win gives the Panthers the head-to-head over UAPB on top of their wins over Grambling, Alcorn and TSU. That leaves Southern as the only West team with a tiebreaker edge, which is why PV's chances jump to 68%.
A loss does the opposite. PV takes a division loss that weakens its division-record tiebreaker, UAPB gains the head-to-head, and UAPB rises from about 1% to 26%. Grambling's chances also double with a PV loss, because PV's head-to-head win over Grambling stops mattering once PV falls behind in the standings.
Nov. 14 — Jackson State at Alabama State (East)
This works the same way as the MVSU game: a division game that hands the head-to-head to whoever wins. A JSU win eliminates Alabama State. A JSU loss keeps the Hornets alive, but only if they have also beaten AAMU, and it gives AAMU its best opening.If JSU loses both this game and the MVSU game, its chances shrink to a small fraction. With one loss and two division wins, it keeps control.
Nov. 14 — Grambling at Bethune-Cookman (both divisions)
This is a crossover game, so neither team's division head-to-head is affected, but both are fighting for record. A B-CU loss would likely be its second, which leaves it needing JSU and AAMU to each stumble twice. That's why its chances drop from 26% to 11%.A Grambling loss caps it at 5-3. Even then, PV's head-to-head win over Grambling means Grambling needs PV to lose twice to move ahead.
Nov. 14 — Alcorn at Southern (West)
This is an elimination game in the chase pack. The winner gains the head-to-head and moves to about 24%. The loser falls to about 3%.There's an extra edge for PV fans to watch. Southern holds the head-to-head over PV, so a Southern surge is the scenario PV fears most, while Alcorn lost to PV and needs PV to lose twice anyway.
Nov. 21 — Prairie View at Alabama State (both divisions)
This is PV's finale and another non-division game. It carries the same West stakes as the AAMU game, because a loss caps PV at 5-3 and opens the door to Southern, Grambling and Alcorn.For Alabama State, it only matters if the Hornets have already beaten AAMU and JSU.
Nov. 21 — Jackson State at Alcorn, Soul Bowl (both divisions)
For JSU, this is the least damaging game to lose in tiebreaker terms, since non-division record comes late in the SWAC's tiebreakers. It still counts in the standings, though. If JSU's only loss is here, AAMU must lose once for JSU to clinch.For Alcorn, this is likely the hardest game in a run it must win completely. A win lifts the Braves from about 5% to 22%.
Nov. 21 — Alabama A&M at Mississippi Valley State (East)
This is AAMU's last game and a division game, so a loss means both another loss and a lower division record. AAMU's chances drop from 42% to about 10%, and B-CU gains the most, since AAMU holds the head-to-head over B-CU.MVSU is alive here only if it beats JSU.
Nov. 28 — Grambling vs. Southern, Bayou Classic (West)
This game kicks off a week after every other team has finished, so it could decide the West with the rest of the division watching.The winner gains the head-to-head and moves to 24–28%, and the loser is nearly finished. A Southern win is the worst case for PV, because Southern already holds the head-to-head over the Panthers. A Grambling win is less threatening to PV, since PV beat Grambling.
Journalist
Listen up maggots! And that's an order!
And if you're wondering which team has the toughest remaining schedule ...
Journalist
Listen up maggots! And that's an order!
Your Panthers still have UAPB and Bama State on the road, plus a home game against A&M. That's tough sledding... It'll be a real test for your staff.
Meanwhile, I think Grambling's playing with house money even AFTER getting belt-to-arsed (BTA'd) by Alabama A&M. I think Pine Bluff's going to be a tough out, but I'm not too sure with them having 3 of 5 remaining games on the road, with two of them at Bethune and PV.
Nothing really unusual in the West. I wouldn't be shocked if a 3 loss team like the 2022 Jags got in this season. I mentioned in another thread that all 3 SWAC West champs 22-24 loss 2 or 3 games and fired their HC the following season. Dooley , Bubba & Graves.