Which of the FCS Top 20 Teams Are FBS Ready?

[bluedog]

Conference realignment might not be done yet. At the very least, the Sun Belt Conference is shopping for a 12th member. The MAC could also use a member to balance out their western division if they desire a 14th team, although they'd have to replace UMASS in the east as well, who is on their way out. At most, the Big 12 might be ready to either add a couple of schools or implode. What the Big 12 does could have major implications for the Mountain West, AAC, which could have major implications for Conference USA and the Sun Belt, which could have major implications for the FCS, and so on.

So if C-USA or the Sun Belt have to dip into the FCS ranks again, or the MAC feels like expanding west, who is left in the FCS that would be ready? I took a look at the top 20 of the FCS Top 25 poll released for 2015, since the most competitive programs are the most likely to be ready for an FBS jump. Much like the FBS preseason poll, there's a lot of royalty that is in the national title conversation year in and year out.

I did put up a few hurdles to clear out some of the less realistic candidates. First and foremost, they have to generate at least $15 million in revenue as an athletic department. UL-Monroe was the only FBS school that didn't in 2014. That rules out Sam Houston State, Jacksonville State, Youngstown State, and Eastern Washington.

There are also FCS mainstays that won't move up to FBS anytime for various reasons such as conference stability or small enrollment, such as New Hampshire, South Dakota State, Richmond, and Southeastern Louisiana. I also filtered out Villanova because they've made their Big East bed and have to lie in it.

http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/8/18/9104213/which-of-the-fcs-top-20-teams-are-fbs-ready

 

[In_The_662]

I didn't have to read the article to know NDSU would be favored to go to the MAC (or the Mountain West). That's common sense.

I think ISU would be a backup plan if NDSU stepped up but didn't come to the MAC.

Chattanoga is the favorite for the Sun Belt and they don't even wanna come (yet) but others like Jacksonville State are longing for that FBS call and can't get it lol

 

[Journalist]

It's amazing the amount of welfare (subsidies) these schools' athletic budgets are inflated by.

 

[bluedog]

It's amazing the amount of welfare (subsidies) these schools' athletic budgets are inflated by.

But you got to be impress with North Dakota State

 

[GramblingMan2009]

The sunbelt added Costal Carolina since this article was published

 

[purplerush]

I think Northern Iowa could move up if they desire to.

 

[In_The_662]

Yeah NDSU is at less than 40%. That's great compared to the 80%+ some of the Sun Belt schools are at now in FBS.

 

[Journalist]

But you got to be impress with North Dakota State

I am. They've done a great job being a big fish in their pond. That's what they're supposed to do. Also with all that new oil/natural gas money floating up there, they're doing a great job capitalizing on the boom.

 

[Tigerpride]

Yeah NDSU is at less than 40%. That's great compared to the 80%+ some of the Sun Belt schools are at now in FBS.

If they went FBS, that would probably increase to 80%,

 

[C-LeB28]

I am. They've done a great job being a big fish in their pond. That's what they're supposed to do. Also with all that new oil/natural gas money floating up there, they're doing a great job capitalizing on the boom.

Over the past year in North Dakota, where thousands have flocked to get their hands on a piece of the oil boom, overall employment has declined by 13,500 — the highest such swing in the nation. In a sign of the times, the state’s public universities recently launched a scholarship program to attract laid-off oilfield workers, “Bakken U.”

Foreclosures were up 15.7 percent in Texas, including even higher rates in oil-rich areas like Midland, 36 percent in Oklahoma and 387 percent in North Dakota.

http://www.ibtimes.com/oil-prices-plunge-layoffs-foreclosures-are-slamming-us-boomtowns-2267874

 

[Journalist]

http://www.ibtimes.com/oil-prices-plunge-layoffs-foreclosures-are-slamming-us-boomtowns-2267874

Thanks C-Leb ... that's where the other shoe will drop for programs like ND State. Can this ride of theirs survive (and new money donors) survive the downside of the boom?

 

[bluedog]

Which of the FCS Top 20 Teams Are FBS Ready? (Part 2)

We took a look at some elite FCS programs in Part 1 of our look at who might be ready for the FCS-to-FBS jump. In this article, we'll examine the back end of the FCS Top 20 as there are a lot of names who have been bandied about for FBS expansion in the past as well.

10. Northern Iowa Panthers

Five year Win/Loss: 38-24 (three FCS playoff appearances)

Revenue Generated: $16,966,524 (50% subsidized)

Stadium Size: UNI-Dome (16,324)

Five year attendance average: 12,881 (79% of capacity)

Recruiting pipelines: Iowa (53), Missouri (7), Minnesota (6), Florida (5), Wisconsin (5)

Media Markets: Waterloo-Cedar Falls MSA (163,706)

Proximity to FBS conferences: MAC (NIU)

FBS readiness grade: B-

The fanbase is already strong for an FCS program, and UNI has taken down or put a scare into a few FBS programs much like conference mates NDSU. But a small stadium, relatively low revenues, a highly local recruiting base in a relatively talent-sparse state, and a small media footprint limits the Panthers' potential.

Although UNI has flirted with an FBS move in the somewhat recent past, they ultimately decided against the move because of economics. Given the niche UNI has carved for itself in FCS, it may make sense to stay put unless a big donor starts flashing money around.
http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015/8/19/9163005/which-of-the-fcs-top-20-teams-are-fbs-ready-part-2

 

[Basebone1898]

NDSU or NIU could be fine in the MWC. I would have expected Jacksonville State to be in the SBC by now.

 

[wahines]

And they will move up with absolutely no chance of winning a National Championship! It is all about money and they would not generate enough money to compete on a regular basis! I would love to see a school from the SWAC or MEAC be able to do it and compete. Now North Dakota St. could, if they are allowed to move to a larger conference, they look to have the resources to.

 

[Basebone1898]

And they will move up with absolutely no chance of winning a National Championship! It is all about money and they would not generate enough money to compete on a regular basis! I would love to see a school from the SWAC or MEAC be able to do it and compete. Now North Dakota St. could, if they are allowed to move to a larger conference, they look to have the resources to.

I agree. However, the playoff system now gives these non P5 conferences at least a puncher's chance if the just so happen to have an undefeated season with a win or two over any P5 programs.

 

[wahines]

I agree. However, the playoff system now gives these non P5 conferences at least a puncher's chance if the just so happen to have an undefeated season with a win or two over any P5 programs.

I agree with you also. But to have a chance to win the national championship. You have to at least beat Iowa and not Iowa St. or Eastern Michigan for example.

 

[Kendrick]

I agree. However, the playoff system now gives these non P5 conferences at least a puncher's chance if the just so happen to have an undefeated season with a win or two over any P5 programs.

A non P5 team is never going to play for the national title -- even an unbeaten one -- under the current playoff system.

 

[Basebone1898]

I agree with you also. But to have a chance to win the national championship. You have to at least beat Iowa and not Iowa St. or Eastern Michigan for example.

I agree. The only way I think you can get it with wins over Iowa State and Vanderbilt is if you are on your second consecutive undefeated season.

 

[wahines]

A non P5 team is never going to play for the national title -- even an unbeaten one -- under the current playoff system.

I agree. The only way I think you can get it with wins over Iowa State and Vanderbilt is if you are on your second consecutive undefeated season.

You both make good points. Kendrick, you are right though, it will be a cold day in hell before a non P5 team play for the National Title. Why do you think they created this in the first place, to keep the small fish like North Dakota St. out.

 

[Basebone1898]

A non P5 team is never going to play for the national title -- even an unbeaten one -- under the current playoff system.

I disagree. If anything, 1 non P5 team has a better shot at getting in due to the selection committee. Memphis was getting a lot of love early in the season, but tripped up.

I will say that only an undefeated non P5 with two P5 wins has a "punchers chance" to get in the CFP as the #4.

 

[Basebone1898]

You both make good points. Kendrick, you are right though, it will be a cold day in hell before a non P5 team play for the National Title. Why do you think they created this in the first place, to keep the small fish like North Dakota St. out.

You have to remember that the "human" factor is in these votes and not a computer factor. The computer never gave the non P5 a chance in the BCS era. Although I like the computer rankings to a extent, the current voting system will give some lead way to a non P5 as long as there aren't 4 undefeated P5 programs at the same time.

 

[number1]

A non P5 team is never going to play for the national title -- even an unbeaten one -- under the current playoff system.

I think had Memphis finished unbeaten, they could have pushed the committee to make a tough decision. If Houston manages to go unbeaten next season, they will definitely be in the playoff discussion. They finished the season ranked No.8 and play Oklahoma and Louisville next season.

 

[wahines]

I think had Memphis finished unbeaten, they could have pushed the committee to make a tough decision. If Houston managed to go unbeaten next season, they will definitely be in the playoff discussion. They finished the season ranked No.8 and play Oklahoma and Louisville next season.

I agree with you, but it was not created for the Houston's to win the National Championship!

 

[Basebone1898]

I think had Memphis finished unbeaten, they could have pushed the committee to make a tough decision. If Houston manages to go unbeaten next season, they will definitely be in the playoff discussion. They finished the season ranked No.8 and play Oklahoma and Louisville next season.

I agree as well. They were extremely hyped about Memphis and Temple when both we rolling. In the CFP era, we are going to get a chance to see a non P5 team as a #4. It's not wishful thinking anymore like it was during the BCS era. And even then, there was a time when folks thought they would never see Hawaii, Utah, Boise State, TCU and Northern Illinois in a BCS Bowl Game.

Mark my word. Pretty soon, the CFP will look like this:

#1 Alabama (13-0) vs #4 Houston (13-0)
#2 Michigan (13-0) vs #3 Stanford (12-1)

Left Out:
#5 Florida State (11-2)
#6 TCU (11-2)

 

[In_The_662]

Right now under the current format, the best G5 teams to stand a chance at a playoff spot is Houston (going off last season) and Boise State (history says they will always play you tough and always play a tough OOC schedule)